Q4 2025: Signs of Stabilization as Year Ends

The fourth quarter of 2025 brought cautious optimism to the Fraser Valley real estate market. While prices continued their gradual decline for an eighth, ninth, and tenth consecutive month, the pace of correction slowed, and several markets showed signs of rebalancing. December's improved sales ratios—with Surrey detached reaching 12% and Mission surging to 34%—suggest the market may be finding its footing heading into 2026.

The Quarter at a Glance

Q4 2025 marked a potential turning point for the Fraser Valley market. While the quarter began with familiar patterns—prices declining and buyer's market conditions persisting—December brought encouraging signs: inventory dropped significantly with seasonal patterns, sales ratios improved across most markets, and the monthly pace of price decline slowed compared to summer months.

Month-by-Month Breakdown

"Affordability concerns and economic pressures are weighing heavily on many Fraser Valley households. But there are encouraging signs for buyers. Composite prices are closer to early-2023 levels, inventory has improved, and there is more space to negotiate than we've had in recent years."

— Tore Jacobsen, Chair, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (November 2025)

Q4 Quarterly Trend Table

Source: Fraser Valley Real Estate Board MLS® HPI, October-December 2025.

Property Type Performance in Q4

Apartments experienced the steepest quarterly decline (▼2.9%), continuing to reflect investor caution and rental market dynamics. Detached homes fell 1.7% through Q4, while townhomes showed the most resilience with just 0.6% decline—actually rising 0.3% in December—suggesting demand remains relatively strong for this property type as an entry point to ownership.

City-by-City Market Analysis

Surrey: Remarkable Recovery to Balanced Territory

Surrey's detached market demonstrated the Fraser Valley's most dramatic Q4 transformation. Starting from a deep buyer's market in October (8% ratio, 1,167 listings, 93 sales), conditions improved steadily through November (7% ratio, 1,099 listings) before reaching balanced territory in December at 12% ratio (808 listings, 94 sales). Despite 26% fewer active listings, December sales matched October levels—a remarkable achievement during typically slow seasonal conditions. Properties sold at 99% of list price with just 40 days on market.

The attached market mirrored this strength with a 16% sales ratio and 169 sales in December—up 23% from November. The $580,000 median (down 6% from November's $620,000) reflects seasonal adjustment while maintaining strong value for entry-level buyers at 97% of list price.

Langley: Fraser Valley's Strongest Market

Langley maintained its position as the Fraser Valley's strongest and most resilient market throughout Q4. Detached homes held firmly in balanced territory from October (16% ratio, 479 listings, 79 sales) through November (13% ratio, 438 listings) to December's estimated 19% ratio—approaching seller's market conditions. The median price of $1,377,500 in October (down just 4% from September) represented one of the region's smallest corrections.

The attached market demonstrated even stronger momentum with 17% ratio consistently through October (849 listings, 146 sales) and November (772 listings, 134 sales). The $682,500 median remained remarkably stable, actually gaining 1% in October—one of the few Fraser Valley markets showing price appreciation during Q4.

Mission: Q4's Most Dramatic Transformation

Mission emerged as Q4's standout story, transforming from balanced conditions in October and November (16% ratio, 245 listings, 38 sales) to 34% sales ratio in December—genuine seller's market conditions. This dramatic shift represented the Fraser Valley's strongest December performance, driven by sharply declining inventory and sustained buyer interest. The $965,000 median in November (down just 2% from September) positioned Mission as one of the region's most stable markets before the December surge.

The attached market maintained moderate conditions through Q4 at 13% ratio in November (76 listings, 10 sales), with the $539,950 median offering the region's most affordable townhouse entry point at 97% SP/LP and 25 days on market.

Abbotsford: Steady Improvement Through Q4

Abbotsford demonstrated consistent improvement through Q4, with detached ratios climbing from 12% in October (469 listings, 54 sales) to 14% in November (415 listings, 59 sales) to an estimated 19% in December—approaching seller's market conditions. The $1,055,000 median in October (flat from September) and $1,120,000 in November showcased remarkable price stability despite broader Fraser Valley corrections. Properties sold at 96-97% of list with improving days on market (17 days in October, 26 in November).

The attached market maintained balanced conditions through Q4 at 12% ratio in November (530 listings, 65 sales), with the $467,500 median representing the region's most affordable attached housing. Properties moved at an impressive 99% SP/LP with just 24 days on market—among the fastest absorption rates in the Fraser Valley.

White Rock / South Surrey: Premium Markets Maintain Buyer-Friendly Conditions

The premium White Rock and South Surrey markets maintained consistent buyer-friendly conditions through Q4, with detached ratios holding at 10% in both October (601 listings, 58 sales) and November (552 listings, 55 sales) before moderating to 8% in December (417 listings, 34 sales). The $1,750,000 November median represents significant year-over-year correction, offering qualified buyers meaningful savings on premium waterfront and hillside properties. Homes sold at 92% SP/LP with 52 days on market in November.

The attached market demonstrated relatively stronger momentum at 15% in October (675 listings, 98 sales) and 14% in November (626 listings, 85 sales), with the $745,000 median maintaining value. Properties sold at an impressive 98% SP/LP with just 28 days on market—among the region's fastest attached absorption despite premium pricing.

Cloverdale: Balanced-to-Seller Conditions

Cloverdale maintained robust balanced-to-seller conditions through Q4, with detached ratios holding at 17% in October (197 listings, 33 sales) and 16% in November (180 listings, 28 sales). The $1,341,500 November median with 99% SP/LP and just 21 days on market demonstrated exceptional efficiency—among the Fraser Valley's fastest absorption rates. Properties sold with minimal price resistance, indicating strong underlying demand.

The attached market showed even stronger momentum at 20% ratio in November (206 listings, 41 sales), approaching seller's market conditions. The $680,000 median with 97% SP/LP and 20 DOM provided compelling value for buyers seeking balanced-to-competitive conditions in Surrey's southeastern corridor.

North Delta: Balanced Detached, Strong Attached

North Delta demonstrated contrasting conditions through Q4, with detached homes moving from 12% balanced territory in October (261 listings, 31 sales) to 10% buyer's market in November (251 listings, 26 sales). The $1,275,000 November median with 98% SP/LP and 34 DOM provided good value for buyers seeking North Delta's established neighbourhoods and convenient Highway 91 access.

The attached market showed robust momentum at 18% ratio in November (72 listings, 13 sales), firmly in balanced territory. However, the $555,000 median with 94% SP/LP and 77 DOM suggested more varied performance across individual properties—likely reflecting North Delta's smaller attached inventory sample size.

Key Takeaways for Buyers

• Mission and Langley require decisive action: Mission's 34% seller's market and Langley's 19% approaching-seller conditions mean competition is real. Buyers in these markets should be pre-approved, move quickly on suitable properties, and submit realistic offers—seller leverage is returning.
• Surrey's balanced territory sweet spot: At 12% detached and 16% attached ratios, Surrey offers equilibrium conditions. The $1M–$1.25M detached segment at 33% and $700K–$800K attached segment at 26% represent hot zones requiring competitive offers.
• Cloverdale's hidden strength: The $1M–$1.25M segment's 43% ratio makes Cloverdale potentially Q4's hottest value play—strong seller conditions with fast absorption (21 DOM) but still slightly more affordable than comparable Surrey neighbourhoods.
• White Rock/South Surrey for patient premium buyers: 8-10% detached ratios with 92% SP/LP mean qualified buyers maintain negotiating leverage on premium properties. If your timeline allows, opportunities remain for strategic discounts on lifestyle properties.
• Entry-level efficiency varies: Apartments showed steepest Q4 declines (▼2.9%), while Abbotsford attached at $467,500 with 99% SP/LP and 24 DOM offers exceptional efficiency. Entry-level buyers should focus on absorption speed, not just price—fast-moving segments indicate competitive conditions ahead.

Key Takeaways for Sellers

• Mission and hot segments command premium positioning: Mission's 34% seller's market, Surrey's $1M–$1.25M at 33%, and Cloverdale's $1M–$1.25M at 43% allow confident pricing. Properties in these segments typically sell at 97-99% SP/LP within 20-40 days—price right and expect competitive interest.
• Langley sellers should leverage consistent strength: Detached ratios of 16-19% through Q4, with Aldergrove and Murrayville at 33% and Fort Langley strengthening to 25% in November, support fair-to-firm pricing. Properties sell at 96-98% SP/LP with 22-40 DOM—realistic expectations yield results.
• Surrey sellers benefit from balanced equilibrium: Overall 12% detached and 16% attached ratios mean properly-priced properties move efficiently (99% SP/LP, 40 DOM detached; 97% SP/LP, 35 DOM attached). Hot neighbourhoods like Cedar Hills (23%), Guildford (25%), and Fleetwood Tynehead (25%) support firmer positioning.
• Abbotsford's improving trajectory favours patience: Ratios climbing from 12% to 14% to estimated 19% through Q4, with the $800K–$900K segment at 30% and exceptional efficiency (99% SP/LP, 24 DOM attached), suggest waiting for Q1 spring activity could maximize results.
• White Rock/South Surrey requires strategic pricing: 8-10% detached ratios with 92% SP/LP mean buyers maintain leverage. However, neighbourhoods like Morgan Creek (strengthening from 6% to 16%) and Crescent Beach (12% December) show pockets where proper positioning succeeds. Focus on condition, staging, and competitive pricing.
• Prepare for spring NOW: Q4's improvement suggests firming conditions ahead. Sellers planning Q1/Q2 listings should use winter months for property preparation—staging, repairs, strategic updates—as competition may intensify with spring inventory surge.

2026 Outlook

"The slowdown we saw in 2025 wasn't just about housing—it reflected broader economic uncertainty felt across the region. Households were navigating affordability challenges, rising costs and tougher mortgage requirements, all of which contributed to a quieter market."

— Baldev Gill, CEO, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (December 2025)

Looking ahead to 2026, Q4's transformation from buyer's to balanced market provides important directional signals:

• Price stabilization appears imminent: Nine consecutive months of decline (April-December 2025) combined with December's 13% balanced ratio suggest the correction cycle is maturing. Townhomes' +0.3% December benchmark gain may signal early stabilization, while apartments' continued weakness (▼2.9% Q4) suggests multi-family adjustment continues.
• Inventory normalization key: Q4's 31% inventory decline (10,121 to 6,965 listings) drove the shift to balanced conditions. January-February's typical inventory surge will test whether improved absorption can maintain 12-15% ratios. If spring inventory overwhelms demand, ratios could moderate; if demand holds, seller-friendly conditions may expand beyond Mission/Langley.
• 2025's full-year context matters: 12,224 total sales (down 16% YoY, down 33% from 10-year average) with 37,963 new listings (four-decade high) created unprecedented choice. This extreme imbalance correcting itself suggests 2026 could see more normalized supply/demand dynamics.
• Interest rate environment remains pivotal: Bank of Canada decisions through Q1 2026 will influence both buyer qualification capacity and confidence. Rate stability or further cuts could accelerate Q4's rebalancing trend; increases would pressure emerging seller's markets like Mission back toward equilibrium.
• Micro-market divergence accelerating: Mission's 16% to 34% surge, Cloverdale's persistent strength, and White Rock's continued buyer-friendliness demonstrate increasing performance variance. 2026 success requires neighbourhood-level strategy—board-wide generalizations become less meaningful as local supply/demand dynamics diverge.